re: help maths genius/probability

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

I need to work out the probability of a random event. I did my O level in statistics 25 years ago so obviously I can't remember half of it (lucky I can remember my own name some days).

If I estimated an event to have a one in 5 chance of happening once a year, and it ends up happening twice in a year, I think this makes 1 in 5 x 1 in 5 = 1 in 25. This is where my brain is letting me down because I am not completely sure I am working it out right. It is allegedly a completely random event like a name being picked at random from a hat, the name being put back in the hat and picked out again.

If this event then happens on average twice a year for the next eight years, does that mean...?:

1 in 25 (chance in year 1) multiplied by 1 in 25 (chance in year 2) etc etc, i.e. 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25
= 152,587,890,625
meaning a 1 in 152,587,890,625 of this event happening twice a year for eight years.

Could someone please :-) (pretty please even) work out if I am doing it right? Much appreciated.

[raindropsies]

I need to work out the probability of a random event. I did my O level in statistics 25 years ago so obviously I can't remember half of it (lucky I can remember my own name some days).

If I estimated an event to have a one in 5 chance of happening once a year, and it ends up happening twice in a year, I think this makes 1 in 5 x 1 in 5 = 1 in 25. This is where my brain is letting me down because I am not completely sure I am working it out right. It is allegedly a completely random event like a name being picked at random from a hat, the name being put back in the hat and picked out again.

If this event then happens on average twice a year for the next eight years, does that mean...?:

1 in 25 (chance in year 1) multiplied by 1 in 25 (chance in year 2) etc etc, i.e. 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25
= 152,587,890,625
meaning a 1 in 152,587,890,625 of this event happening twice a year for eight years.

Could someone please :-) (pretty please even) work out if I am doing it right? Much appreciated.

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_12_3.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxuk101YYGB)

Sorry, you lost me after the 2nd line of 2nd paragraph, is this some sort of cryptic challange, and now my brains melted.
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_6_2v.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxuk101YYGB)

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

lol. I know what you mean. I did an O level in statistics and got a D, and then got thrown off the A level pure maths & statistics course after a year (well, it was politely and tactfully suggested my talents lie elsewhere, lol) hence I was struggling a bit trying to work this out.

What it boils down to is this. I get £15 a week housing benefit towards my rent. Since I left the ex in Oct 1999, I have had the housing benefit people call out to do anything between one and four home visits and full investigations per year. My mother has been on housing benefit for donkey's years and has only ever had one visit in total throughout all those years, same with everyone else I have spoken to who get the HB help towards their rent.

Housing benefit have explained to me that my name is being picked at random by their computer for investigation and home visits and that it is just a coincidence that I am picked out between one and four times every year. They have been round three times since August 2007 alone. And of course each time they demand minimum three months worth of bank statements, so they know more about my incomings and outgoings than I do. I think it is more than a coincidence. Okay, so I have nothing to hide, but having strangers from HB coming round, looking round my house for anything out of place (gold clocks, crown jewels, running a brothel or drugs den, having a partner living with me or whatever they are looking for), photographing my house without my permission (if I object to any of these, they tell me that legally they can take the HB off me). I would love to tell them to shove it up their chocolate starfish if I could manage without it because I just feel victimised.

Hence the reason I need to provide some form of maths to prove that statistically, this is not a coincidence or anomaly. Personally, I think it is my nasty ex up to his tricks again. Each of the last three times HB have called round has been after I have had to have solicitors sending him letters because he has up to stuff again, so I reckon he is ringing HB up and pretending I am up to something to get them to investigate me just to pee me off. If I can get the statistics to back me up, then that is a huge thing in my favour.

[cmjewels925]

Sorry, to work out the statistics, you'd need to know how many names there were on their database and the total number of home visits carried out each year. Otherwise, it's just a totally random figure.

It does sound like your ex is instigating the visits, though.

[Vonz]

I'd advise getting in contact with:

Local Councillor
The Councillor who holds the Finance portfolio (they are wasting public funds)
Your MP

In all cases, write to them......they can pretend telephone conversations never happened.:eek:

Kick up a fuss anyway.....it dosn't matter why they are picking on you......they are!

Yvonne x

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

Thanks. I did wonder if I could get those figures from the council by writing and requesting them through the Data Protection Act? I also wondered about seeing if I can get a copy of my file through the same Act to see exactly why I feel as though I am singled out. Even if I just an anonymous complaint on my record, or someone higher up deliberately singling me out, I will at least know something.

I thought of the councillors and local MP but without the figures there isn't much I can do except posture about it. I've been onto my housing association welfare rights bloke who has complained on my behalf a couple of times about this, although they refuse to even acknowledge I claim HB even with my signature for permission. He has a friend in the council who can't go into specifics but can hint in a general direction, so he says he will see what he can find out when this council person comes back from their hols.

I have the HB people in my house more than my effing family at the moment. :-(

[Rednosty]

The answer to Life the Universe and Everything is 42!

so the answers 42

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

lol, if only it were that simple.
the welfare rights guy has just got back to me with the number of HB claimants, there are around 40,000. He also confirms that 98% of reviews are done via the postal system, and only a tiny minority of around 800 ever get home visits in any given year. With the average two visits a year I have had over eight and a half years, that is one hell of a coincidence!

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

oh dear. I think I have really peed the council off at some point. They sent me a threatening letter today about my council tax, stating I have not paid my May payment yet which is due on May 12th 2008, and if I don't pay in seven days i.e. by 8th of May), they will take court action. Despite the fact that it isn't even due yet...

Combine that with three demands for home visits for housing benefit in under a year, someone at that department really has it in for me :-(

[razamakaz]

Oh there MUST be a really funny or sarky letter you can send regarding being chased for an overdue payment that's not even due yet! My brain isn't in gear at the moment for it!

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

You're right, there probably is but my brain is in no fit state to make it today. Their letter was dated 28th April (exactly two weeks before it is due) and they state I owe then £2 less than the payment that is due, so heaven knows how they have they have come to that conclusion. Plus, it explains how council tax is so high if they are sending everyone who is paid up to date threatening letters saying they are in arrears! Rough guess of 100,000 households, maybe 70,000 of them paid up to date, at 36p per letter - about twenty thousand quid wasted on postage alone. If it happened every month it would explain why we pay more and get less for our money!

[sdk]

They sent me a threatening letter today about my council tax, stating I have not paid my May payment yet which is due on May 12th 2008, and if I don't pay in seven days i.e. by 8th of May), they will take court action.


Assuming those dates are right (and that they're not dunning you for an earlier debt) then if I were you I'd have a word with the Citizen's Advice Bureau.

There's a word for such behaviour, and it's 'harrassment'. And that's illegal.

[kengillam]

Don't forget it's voting day today go and exercise your right and kick the stupid lot out!

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

Assuming those dates are right (and that they're not dunning you for an earlier debt) then if I were you I'd have a word with the Citizen's Advice Bureau.

There's a word for such behaviour, and it's 'harrassment'. And that's illegal.

Yes, everything is all paid up to date, so no reason for their letter or their endless home visits.

True, it is definitely harassment, but if I even whisper that word, you can guarantee that my claim will miraculously disappear or be cancelled for some reason. I complained once before, years ago when I left the ex, and it took me around 17 weeks for them to process the claim as they "lost" documents, some of them were "lost" three or four times. Needless to say, I almost lost the house I was renting at the time. It would be safer to grass on the mafia than it would to any area of the benefits system. And the fact that if I don't open the door when they turn up on yet another visit, housing benefit will stop. They take photographs in my lounge and claim they are just "photographing documents" I've given them. I'm waiting for them to ask to use the loo as an excuse to check see how many toothbrushes are in the bathroom, make sure there is no one else living here. I didn't start off as paranoid, but the more times these things happen, the more sure I get that they are making me jump through hoops.

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

It gets funnier (or not as the case may be).

I started trying to pay my "overdue" council tax, which isn't due until the end of this week. There was a glitch on the website, when I clicked to pay council tax online, it just kept taking me back to the main page so I couldn't make a payment. I emailed the council on Thursday to point this out. On Friday, it was still the same, but I managed to go around the houses on the website to get to the page I wanted, and managed to make a payment. I checked the website again this morning, it was still out, but wait for the brilliant email I got back from the council:

"I have forwarded you (sic) e-mail to the team in charge of web payments for investigation. Although I would inform you that we have had no other contact from charge-payers saying they have had a problem with the website. Also, you have not given your name, address or account number"

So that means, "We want you to pay up before your payment is due. We wanted the payment within seven days, i.e. a week before it needed paying or we will threaten you with more stuff. You are obviously making all this up,and because no one else has complained about the website not working, then you are a bloody liar". Strangely enough within 20 minutes of this email landing in my inbox, the website was back up and running again.

And to think I have the joy of paying them £800 a year council tax for this brilliant service...

[herbalbrew]

Best solution to your problems is.....

a "red letter"

Write directly to the PM.

The letter is photocopied and sent to the department, at that point the supervisors run around like headless chickens, checking their backs....and an answer must always be received.

But I didn't tell you that ;)

[MadcatwomanEnterprises]

lol, thanks, I might do that.

And you're right, I definitely didn't hear it from you ;-)